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The Honest Record

How our Harness calls actually performed · 294 settled races · Last 7 days
Today Last 7 days All time

Most tipping sites show you their winners and quietly forget the rest. We do the opposite: here's every call, scored against the result — including where backing blindly loses money. We'd rather you trust us than be impressed by us.

◎ Our Best Bets fair

Not every race — only the confidence plays we actually publish (the dominant-favourite calls on the Best Bets page and our Telegram channel), scored against the result. 119 sent live, 7 reconstructed from before the channel launched.

What we actually do: point you at the right races. Across all 294 races, blindly backing every favourite — versus following the 126 dominant-favourite races we actually flag as Best Bets.

WinPlace
Back every favourite, every race 34.0% 70.4%
Follow our Best Bets 48.4% 79.4%
The difference we make +14.4 pts +9.0 pts

Straight talk: that lift is better race selection, not better prices — we point you at the races where the favourite is genuinely solid, and tell you to pass the rest. No one profits flat-backing favourites to win (the market's too efficient, and on a level-stake win bet our published calls still run -17.4%). We show that because it's the honest, hardest test. The value isn't the flat win bet — it's knowing which races are worth your attention, a 79% place strike that anchors multis and exotics, and the discipline to pass the rest. Honesty over hype — every time.

These are the same confidence plays on the Best Bets page and broadcast free on Telegram. The full call — prices and stance — is on each race page for members.

34.0%
Market fav win
70.4%
Market fav place
-29.6%
Market fav flat ROI

"Market fav" = blindly backing the shortest-priced runner in every race (294 races) — the baseline our Best Bets are measured against above.

By race shape

Our call changes with the race. This shows whether each type of call held up — and the stance we give for it.

Dominant favourite thin we say back to win
Market fav: 78 races Win 51.3% Place 80.8% Flat ROI -25.9%
Our model pick: 78 races Win 51.3% Place 80.8% Flat ROI -25.9%
Competitive thin we say win or place
Market fav: 112 races Win 32.1% Place 70.5% Flat ROI -33.9%
Our model pick: 112 races Win 31.3% Place 70.5% Flat ROI -35.5%
Weak favourite noise we say place or pass
Market fav: 39 races Win 28.2% Place 64.1% Flat ROI -23.3%
Our model pick: 39 races Win 25.6% Place 59.0% Flat ROI -30.0%
Open race thin we say place or pass
Market fav: 65 races Win 20.0% Place 61.5% Flat ROI -30.6%
Our model pick: 65 races Win 21.5% Place 58.5% Flat ROI -23.4%

Read it like this: on Dominant favourite races we say back to win, and those win most often. On Weak favourite and Open races we say don't back the favourite to win — so the low win rate there is the call working, not failing: we steered you to place or pass.

Model vs market accuracy. Across 2,688 rated runners, our model's probability error (Brier 0.0836) is essentially level with the market's (0.0838). We match the market's accuracy but don't claim to beat it — our edge is in how we frame the race, not in secret better prices.
Our pledge. We will never hide a losing run, cherry-pick a hot week, or claim an edge the numbers don't show. This page updates automatically from real results — good and bad. If a call type stops working, you'll see it here first.

Sample tags: noise under 40 · thin 40+ · fair 120+ · solid 300+ races.

Calls reconstructed from settled results using the same engine the site runs live. Flat ROI = level-stake (1 unit) win bet, scored on settled results. "Market fav" backs the shortest-priced runner every race; "Our pick" backs our model's top-rated runner where the race was rated. Past performance is not a guarantee. Not betting advice · 18+ · GambleAware.