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NEWCASTLE

R1 5:10 PM R2 5:40 PM R3 6:10 PM R4 6:40 PM R5 7:10 PM R6 7:40 PM R7 8:10 PM R8 8:40 PM

Race 4

6:40 PM
2030m · 9 runners
📍 Our record & guide for Newcastle Harness Racing Club ›
🏁 Result
1st MAJOR BYE
2nd RED SAPPHIRE ⭐ Best Bet
3rd LAST TIME JOE
4th SILENT FEARS
✅ Place bet landed — RED SAPPHIRE ran a place
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
3
RED SAPPHIRE P $1.02
place only ⭐ Best Bet
Dominant favourite — market has strong consensus. Place bet is the value play at these odds.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
3. RED SAPPHIRE FAV TOP RATED 3 $1.45 $1.02 $3.23
9. SILENT FEARS 9 $7.50 $1.75 $13.50
10. CHASING REX 10 $11.00 $2.10 $16.79
6. PARADISE POINT 6 $11.00 $2.25 $17.19
1. PRINCESS MICKAYLA 1 $18.00 $2.60 $20.63
4. LACEYS LAD 4 $21.00 $3.40 $22.97
7. LAST TIME JOE 7 $19.00 $3.25 $22.99
2. MAJOR BYE 2 $14.00 $2.40 $28.39
8. THE CID 8 $71.00 $6.00 $78.72
Favourite record at NEWCASTLE ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.45) sits in the <1.50 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
<1.50 this race 68% 90% 50*
1.50–1.99 45% 78% 116
2.00–2.49 41% 70% 111
2.50–3.49 25% 58% 168
3.50–4.99 19% 53% 43*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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