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MARBURG

R1 12:17 PM R2 12:53 PM R3 1:32 PM R4 2:05 PM R5 2:45 PM R6 3:14 PM R7 3:42 PM R8 4:07 PM

Race 2

12:53 PM
1850m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st MOVE HEAVENNEARTH
2nd ITS A SPONGE DARL ⭐ Best Bet
3rd VICTREE BUSTA
4th KINGSBURY
✅ Place bet landed — ITS A SPONGE DARL ran a place
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
1
ITS A SPONGE DARL P $1.02
place only ⭐ Best Bet
Dominant favourite — market has strong consensus. Place bet is the value play at these odds.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBarrierWinPlaceOur rate
1. ITS A SPONGE DARL FAV TOP RATED 1 $1.70 $1.02 $2.57
6. MIGHTY CRUNCH 6 $3.20 $1.16 $4.29
3. MOVE HEAVENNEARTH 3 $8.50 $1.85 $9.36
4. VICTREE BUSTA 4 $9.50 $1.95 $9.80
5. KINGSBURY 5 $16.00 $2.75 $13.46
7. JINDALEA JACK 7 $31.00 $3.75 $25.09
8. WEE BONNIE 8 $34.00 $4.25 $27.64
2. SIYA 2 $81.00 $5.50 $53.92
Favourite record at MARBURG ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.70) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
<1.50 73% 100% 22*
1.50–1.99 this race 49% 86% 35*
2.00–2.49 50% 79% 24*
2.50–3.49 26% 83% 23*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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